Half-point calculator
Is -3 at -120 better than -3.5 at +105? Enter two prices for the same bet. The calculator shows each one's chance to win, push and lose, based on how often real games with a similar line ended on each exact score, and which option is worth more per $100.
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| Win | Push | Lose | Per $100 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Option A | ||||
| Option B |
How it works
A half point is worth the most when it moves you onto or off a score games often end on. In the NFL, 3-point favorites win by exactly 3 about 9% of the time, so -3 pushes about 1 game in 11 and -3.5 never does. A half point around 6 or 10 is worth far less.
For each line, the calculator uses games whose closing line was close to it: 4,440 NFL games (2010 on, closing lines from nflverse) and 8,147 college games (2016 on). "Value per $100" is the average profit or loss on a $100 bet if those rates hold. A push returns your stake.
More betting calculators: spread to moneyline, teasers and alternate lines.
Both options usually show a small expected loss. That's the book's built-in margin, and the calculator can't remove it. What it tells you is which of the two prices costs you less. Past results don't predict future ones.